2024 Election Result Discrepancies: Unveiling the Truth
Nathan Taylor from the Election Truth Alliance (ETA) discusses potential election result discrepancies on The Mark Thompson Show on YouTube. The ETA is a non-partisan organization focused on verifying election integrity through audits and data analysis. Taylor and his colleagues found statistical anomalies, specifically in Clark County, Nevada's early voting data, using a "Russian tale analysis." This analysis reveals that the presidential and Senate races show irregularities compared to down-ballot races, suggesting potential manipulation. Taylor speculates about a possible algorithm that could be changing or deleting votes after a set threshold on voting machines and argues for paper audits in swing states to examine potential discrepancies. He also highlights significant drop-off anomalies in several states, where the presidential candidate received fewer votes than down-ballot senate candidates, and raises concerns about compromised voting machines covering 70% of the US.
Early Voting Anomalies and Election Integrity Concerns
Early voting data raises concerns due to several anomalies and statistical improbabilities. According to Nathan Taylor from the Election Truth Alliance, these concerns stem from irregularities observed when analyzing early voting patterns in comparison to other voting methods and historical data.
Here's a breakdown of the key issues:
Anomalous Vote Distribution: Early voting data in Clark County, Nevada, does not conform to an expected binomial distribution (bell curve). Unlike mail-in voting and Election Day results, early voting exhibits a "tail," which is a deviation from the norm. This unusual distribution mirrors patterns observed in potentially manipulated elections in other countries, such as the 2020 Russian constitutional referendum and elections in Georgia.
Discrepancies in Down-Ballot Races: The "tail" anomaly is present in presidential and Senate races but absent in other down-ballot races (e.g., Supreme Court, state ballot questions) within the same election. This divergence suggests irregularities specific to the presidential and Senate races.
Vote Thresholds and Machine Performance: Analysis of voting machine data in Clark County reveals that candidate performance begins to diverge after a threshold of approximately 200-300 votes. Specifically, after this threshold, votes for Trump increase, while the percentage of votes for Harris decreases. This separation across multiple machines points to a potential algorithm that alters votes after a set threshold is reached.
Demographic Discrepancies: In Las Vegas, Clark County, early voting locations in predominantly Democratic areas showed Republican parties exceeding the number of Democratic votes cast. This contradicts the expected voting patterns based on the area's demographics.
Potential Vote Manipulation: Based on these anomalies, there are concerns that a vote-changing algorithm could be in play, potentially flipping votes from one candidate to another.
Concerns with Vote Tabulation Machines: 70% of the vote tabulation machines used in the US, including those in swing states, have potential compromise concerns.
Statistical Improbabilities in the 2024 Election Results
Statistical improbability in recent election results, as suggested by Nathan Taylor's analysis, arises from several factors:
Winning swing states outside the margin of recount with under 50% of the popular vote: Winning all seven swing states without triggering a recount while securing less than 50% of the popular vote is statistically improbable. Meaning, No-Freaking-Way-Possible. It suggests a targeted approach of securing just enough votes in critical areas.
Flipping of Counties: The fact that 88 counties flipped from voting Blue in 2020 to Red in 2024, with zero counties flipping from Red to Blue, is statistically improbable. By comparison, even in the 1984 election where Ronald Reagan won 49 out of 50 states, approximately 30 counties still flipped blue for his opponent. This alone is Mind-Blowing!
Drop-off anomalies: The consistency of drop-off patterns in 2024, where the Democratic presidential candidate underperformed compared to their Senate candidate while the Republican candidate overperformed, is described as a "non-human consistency in voting pattern". In Ohio, every county showed Democrats getting fewer votes than their next down-ballot race, and Republicans at the presidential level got more votes. Such consistent underperformance and overperformance across multiple counties and states is not what would be statistically expected.
Anomalous Vote Distribution: Early voting data in Clark County, Nevada, did not match an expected binomial distribution (bell curve). The "tail" in the distribution resembled patterns seen in potentially manipulated elections in other countries, such as the 2020 Russian constitutional referendum.
Potential Vote Manipulation: Estimates suggest that approximately 1.5 million votes may have been flipped in six swing states due to a vote-changing algorithm. This is based on calculations assuming a certain threshold caused potential vote flips, and inverting those votes would have changed the outcome of those six swing states.
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I’ve created a briefing document based on the provided sources, aiming to capture the main themes and arguments presented by the Election Truth Alliance (ETA).
Briefing Document: Election Truth Alliance (ETA) Claims of Election Discrepancies
Date: February 27, 2025
Sources:
Website excerpts from Election Truth Alliance
"Election Result Discrepancies: Analysis of Election Truth Alliance Findings"
"Unveiling the Truth: Election Result Discrepancies, Nathan Taylor from Election Truth Alliance"
Election Truth Alliance_Feb 4 Introductory PPT_ PDF Version (pdf Download)
Greg Palast - 2024 Voter Suppresion & Vigilantes Inc.
Executive Summary:
The Election Truth Alliance (ETA), a self-described non-partisan organization focusing on election integrity, presents evidence and analysis suggesting potential manipulation and anomalies in U.S. elections, primarily focusing on the 2020 and 2024 elections. Their claims center around statistical anomalies, potential algorithmic manipulation of vote tabulation machines, and inconsistencies in voter "drop-off" rates.
They advocate for audits of election results to verify their accuracy and maintain confidence in the electoral process. Their primary focus is data analysis and communications related to the 2024 election and advocacy to "#VerifytheVote."
Election Security and Verification, Not Denial:
ETA positions itself as an advocate for election security and verification through audits, emphasizing they are not engaging in election denial. "this isn't election denial this is election security this is insurance this is you know making sure everything's above board and you do audits everyone does audits so why don't we audit our election"
Focus on Swing States and Clark County, Nevada:
ETA's analysis heavily focuses on data from swing states, especially Clark County, Nevada, due to the availability of detailed cast vote records. The choice of these states is because they're prone to closer margins, which makes them "vulnerable to potential manipulation." "Russian Tale"
Anomaly and Binomial Distribution:
A central claim revolves around a statistical anomaly dubbed the "Russian tale," observed in early voting data in Clark County, Nevada for both the presidential and Senate races. ETA argues that vote distributions should follow a binomial distribution (bell curve). This anomaly is a deviation from this expected distribution. "This gave Putin additional terms in office where he could extend same concern of that distribution not being binomial having a tale"
Hypothesis of a Vote-Changing Algorithm:
ETA hypothesizes that an algorithm may be running on vote tabulation machines, changing and/or deleting votes after a certain threshold is met. They claim this threshold may vary by location and election type. Their analysis of machine data in Clark County suggests a threshold around 200-300 votes, after which Trump's percentage begins to increase. "What I'm saying this means and what we need to validate and what paper ballots and an audit will show or not show is is there an algorithm that has a threshold of about 200 to 300 votes occurring in Clark County and potentially other places and we have data for that as well after that threshold it begins to change votes from one candidate to the other"
Drop-Off Anomalies:
ETA highlights inconsistencies in voter "drop-off" rates (differences in votes received between presidential and down-ballot Senate candidates) across swing states compared to non-swing states. They contend this consistency is non-human and potentially a symptom of the algorithm. "when you map it out and you look at how consistent it is when we look at 24 we argue this is a nonhuman consistency in voting pattern 2016 looks more human because those population change and they don't all stay in line" They also point out that Harris outperformed Biden's 2020 numbers in certain swing states. "she actually exceeded Biden's 2020 numbers in Wisconsin North Carolina and Georgia and she got across the seven swing States 99 99.6% of the votes cast so this doesn't correlate with the amount of drop off we're seeing in some of these states"
Mail-In Voting Exemption?:
The data suggests this algorithm doesn't effect mail-in voting tabulation.
Concerns about Voting Machine Security:
The organization expresses concerns about the potential compromise of voting machines manufactured by companies that cover a large percentage of the U.S. market, including swing states, which may potentially affect votes. These potential comprises, whether image compromise or potential cellular modem access, may affect the votes.
Call for Audits:
ETA strongly advocates for audits of swing state elections to verify the accuracy and integrity of the vote tabulation process, and to either confirm or refute their findings.
Statistical Improbability:
ETA states the "statistical probability of winning seven swing States outside of the margin of a recount and with less than 50% of the popular vote um is statistically improbable like it just it would never occur naturally it would require you to only win in such targeted ways where you get just enough votes in the places that matter it's a little strange".
Supporting Evidence and Quotes:
Clark County Data: Clark County's detailed cast vote record enables granular analysis, revealing anomalies in early voting distributions compared to Election Day and mail-in voting.
Comparison to Other Elections:
The "Russian tale" anomaly is compared to similar patterns in past elections in Russia and Georgia, raising concerns about potential manipulation.
Statistical Analysis:
ETA employs binomial distribution analysis and other statistical methods to identify irregularities.
Concerns and Potential Counterarguments:
Statistical Anomalies vs. Fraud:
Demonstrating that statistical anomalies result from intentional manipulation or fraud requires additional evidence.
Alternative Explanations:
Observed anomalies may have alternative explanations, such as voter turnout patterns, candidate popularity, or demographic shifts.
Sample Size and Generalizability:
The findings are heavily based on data from Clark County, Nevada. Generalizing these patterns to other locations requires further investigation. Algorithmic Bias: There's the possibility that ETA's algorithm is biased in some ways, leading to false positives.
Recommendations (Implied):
Conduct independent audits of swing state elections. Ensure transparency in election administration and data access. Conduct further research into observed anomalies. Perform cybersecurity assessments of voting machines and election systems.
